As I warned yesterday, this market rally is extremely tired.
Stocks have gone straight up for three months. Trough to peak the S&P 500 is up over 30%. And has gone over 60 days without touching its 20-DMA. This is NOT normal market action and a consolidation if not a correction is long overdue. Indeed, the last time the S&P 500 had a streak such as this, was during the Dot Com Bubble!
Numerous red flags are now pointing towards a pullback hitting.
First and foremost, high yield credit which typically leads stocks (note how the red line led the black line during this recent rally) has already begun to roll over.
Secondly, market breadth, another metric that typically leads the overall index, has begun to roll over. Here again, this is a red flag that a pullback is coming shortly.
Finally, seasonals and historical trends are favoring a pullback. As Ryan Detrick notes, August is typically a weak month during the second term of a President. The average return is DOWN 3.4%.
Add if all up and numerous signals point towards a pullback if not a correction hitting shortly.
The big question is if the inevitable pullback will be a garden variety correction or the start of something worse: the bubble bursting and a crash.
To answer that, we rely on a proprietary market timing trigger that has caught every crisis of the last 45 years. We detail it, how it works, and what it’s currently saying about the markets in a special investment report How to Predict a Crash.
Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of what’s happening in markets today, we’re making just 99 copies available to the investing public.
The Trump administration has announced multiple trade deals in the last few weeks.
Last week it was Japan, Indonesia and the Philippines. This week it’s the European Union (EU). One by one, nations are lining up to make deals with the U.S. And the deals are heavily in favor of the U.S., NOT the other nations.
Case in point, consider the details of the trade deal with the EU announced over the weekend.
The U.S. will impose tariffs of 15% on all imports from the EU, except pharmaceuticals.
The EU will impose tariffs of 0% on US goods, except automobiles which will face a 15% tariff.
The EU will also purchase some $750 million in energy AND invest up to $600 billion in the U.S.
Frankly, this is an extremely lopsided deal in favor of the US… which is not too surprising given that the US is the top exporter nation for the EU. Take away US markets from EU exporters and the EU has a REAL problem. Still, it’s astonishing how many analysts and strategists believed that the US was going to be the loser in these negotiations.
Which brings us to the markets.
Stocks have climbed a wall of worry driven as they discounted these deals. They are now extremely overbought and more than due for a pullback. Indeed, the S&P 500 has formed a clear rising wedge formation, which is usually a bearish development. A breakout is coming… and the bulls better hope it’s UP, not down.
Indeed, the S&P 500 is now over 4% above its 10-week moving average (the same as the 50-DMA) and 9% above the 40-WMA (the same as the 200-DMA). Over the last three years, anytime stocks were this stretched to the upside, they corrected, usually well below the 10-WMA/ 50-DMA.
The big question is if the inevitable pullback will be a garden variety correction or the start of something worse: the bubble bursting and a crash.
To answer that, we rely on a proprietary market timing trigger that has caught every crisis of the last 45 years. We detail it, how it works, and what it’s currently saying about the markets in a special investment report How to Predict a Crash.
Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of what’s happening in markets today, we’re making just 99 copies available to the investing public.
The meme stock craze of 2021 is back with unprofitable, financially unstable companies soaring in value. First it was Opendoor Technologies (OPEN). But now Krispy Kreme (DNUT), Kohl’s (KSS) and GoPro (GPRO) are joining in. These stocks are all up near triple digits this week on massive short-squeezes.
Moreover, the overall indices are getting VERY richly valued. The S&P 500 has a P/E of 30, which is nearly TWO TIMES the average P/E of 16. The only time the index has sported a higher P/E was during the Tech Bubble, the bottom of the Great Financial Crisis (because profits evaporated) and during the Pandemic Bubble (ditto).
Meme mania back with excessive speculation? Check.
Stock market extremely overvalued? Check.
Yep, this is a bubble.
With this in mind, investors should ride the current bull market in stocks while keeping one eye on the exits. We are urging our clients to do precisely this with a tool we’ve developed that has accurately predicted every major market collapse in the last 40 years.
We detail it, how it works and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash. Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of what’s happening in markets today, we’re making just 99 copies available to the investing public.
The stock market is in melt up mode… with the markets entering bubble territory. And it’s going to end in disaster.
The S&P 500 has now gone 62 days without touching is 20-day moving average (DMA). There have been intraday moves where the index briefly touched the line, but we haven’t had a daily close on it in over two months.
This hasn’t happened since the Dot Com bubble in the late 1990s.
Similarly, the S&P 500 is ~4% above its 10-week moving average (the same as the 50-DMA) and ~8% above its 40-WMA (the same as the 200-DMA). Historically, these levels of extension above the intermediate and long-term trend have marked short-term tops, or at least periods of consolidation. They’re not this time… which again suggests a bubble is forming.
And finally, we are back to the meme stock days where companies with poor to awful fundamentals are exploding higher by hundreds of percentage points. The latest example is Opendoor Technologies (OPEN) which, despite never earning a cent in net income, has rallied over 400% in the last week or so.
When will this end? I have no idea… but we all know HOW it will end: in disaster as every mania does.
This is when BIG money can be made.
With this in mind, investors should ride the current bull market in stocks while keeping one eye on the exits. We are urging our clients to do precisely this with a tool we’ve developed that has accurately predicted every major market collapse in the last 40 years.
We detail it, how it works and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash. Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of what’s happening in markets today, we’re making just 99 copies available to the investing public.
As I keep emphasizing, the AI revolution is still in the early stages. And it’s barely in the 1st or 2nd inning for healthcare. So the upside potential is massive.
Previously, we’ve noted that:
Big pharma is teaming up with companies like NVIDIA for everything from drug development to trial modeling and more.
Machine learning using AI is proving to be as good if not better than physicians at reading/ diagnosing patients based on data or images (X-rays, MRIs, CT scans).
AI is being used to map individual genomes to allow for truly tailored care for patients.
Despite the potential here, adoption is slow going: the Elsevier’s Clinician of the Future survey for 2025 noted that less than one in three (32%) of clinicians feel their organizations provided adequate access to AI tools and technologies. And only 16% of them are currently using AI to make clinical decisions!
16%. Less than one in five.
Moreover, patients are proving reticent to trust AI with healthcare decisions. Research by theUniversity of Michigan’s Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation found that only 4% of patients have “a lot of trust” in AI-generated information while nearly HALF (47%) have “little to no trust” in it!
So, we have doctors who want to use AI, but don’t have access to it… and patients who don’t trust AI and believe the information it presents isn’t accurate. This is to be expected with new technology. If less than one in five clinicians are even using AI, how on earth can you expect patients to trust it or be familiar with it in a medical setting?!?!
So again, AI adoption in healthcare is in the VERY early stages. But this is where THE BIG money will be made in the coming months and years. AI healthcare spending will grow from $26 billion to over $187 billion in the next five years alone. And frankly I believe these forecasts are underestimating the true scale of demand.
Consider…
The US population over the age of 65 now accounts for 17% of the total US population. In 1920, it was only 5%. Total US healthcare spending is expected to hit $8.6 TRILLION by 2033, up from $5.6 trillion today. At that point healthcare spending will account for 20% of US GDP.
This massive demand is running into shortages. TheElsevier survey mentioned earlier notes that nearly one in three (28%) of clinicians already say they did not have enough time to deliver quality care to each patient!
This is only going to get worse.
The American Hospital Association estimates that the industry will face a shortage of up to 124,000 physicians by 2033, and it will need to hire at least 200,000 nurses a year to meet rising demands.
AI can fix this, but to do it will need widespread adoption… Which means AI healthcare companies making a LOT of money in the future. But as usual, Wall Street is ignoring the potential here.
Healthcare as an investment has been declared DEAD. While the S&P 500 index and NASDAQ have hit all-time highs, the healthcare ETF peaked in 2024 and is effectively in a bear market, down 19% from its peak.
Indeed, the ratio of the healthcare ETF to the overall index (XLV: $SPX) is at trading at levels last seen in 2009! This entire sector of the market has been left for dead.
So, we have growing demand, supply shortages, and an entire sector that has been left for dead… with a revolutionary technology that is in the very early stages of adoption.
This is when BIG money can be made.
So, if you feel you’ve missed out on AI as an investment, you’re very much mistaken. There is tremendous potential (and profits) here. Even a handful of AI-related healthcare plays could generate major returns in the next three to five years.
On that note, we have published a special investment report The AI Plays Your Broker Doesn’t Know About detailing three unique investments designed to profit from the ongoing revolution in AI. Best of all, Wall Street has little to no idea these companies even exist, let alone their potential.
We are making just 99 copies available to the general public. To pick up yours…
The greenback declined 12% in the first six months of 2025. This is the worst six month start for the dollar since 1973. And unfortunately, it doesn’t look as if things are about to improve any time soon.
The dollar has been in a clear downtrend (blue lines in the chart below) since the start of the year. And despite such a steep decline, the $USD is failing to even mount a decent bounce: it was clearly rejected by overhead resistance (red line in the chart below) just last week. This is EXTREMELY bearish.
Zooming out, it is clear just how significant this is. The $USD is sitting on a 15-year trendline. If it breaks this, then we can expect a very significant move lower.
This is a huge deal. The $USD has been weak for months… but a break of this trendline would herald the start of a prolonged bear market. And that would have massive implications for numerous asset classes.
Consider that gold has already hit a record high courtesy of the $USD’s weakness in the last six months. Can you imagine what gold, silver and other dollar hedges would do if the dollar broke down here?
Suffice to say, there is the opportunity to make a LOT of money here. With the right investments, an investor could turn the coming collapse in the $USD into life-changing profits.
If you’re looking for unique investments to profit from this, we recently detailed three investments that will profit beautifully from a weak $USD in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit From Inflation..
We made 99 copies available to the general public. As I write this, there are only 27 left.
I keep pounding the table on the implications of AI for healthcare.
My primary point: AI’s biggest impact will be in healthcare, NOT tech.
We’ve already noted that AI is being used in drug discovery, development, and even modeling with big pharma companies like Novo Nordisk announcing partnerships with Nvidia. Moreover, AI tools are capable to accurately diagnosing complicated medical conditions, reading MRIs/ X-rays and even acting as lab assistants.
AI is also being used to improve quality of care for patients. The healthcare industry is in a crisis courtesy of an aging population, understaffing, and a convoluted bureaucracy. The Elsevier’s Clinician of the Future survey for 2025 noted that nearly one in three (28%) of clinicians said they did not have enough time to deliver quality care to each patient!
AI can fix much of this.
Already Americans are turning to AI chatbots like ChatGPT or Grok for self-diagnosis. And this is not some random “blip” driven by the novelty of AI technology: according to the same survey we just mentioned, 51% of healthcare professionals believe patients will self-diagnose using online tools rather than seeing clinicians in just 2-3 years’ time. Moreover, only 32% of clinicians felt their organizations provided adequate access to AI tools and technologies.
Put another way, less that one in three clinicians even have access to AI. Adoption and integration are in only the second or third inning. The global AI healthcare industry is expected to increase more than five-fold from $26 billion today to over $187 billion in 2030.
Already there are small cap AI companies with technologies that can map individual human genomes to design tailored cancer treatments, rapidly detail and organize doctor/ patient conversations key bullet points, and even planning neurosurgery.
Some publicly traded healthcare companies that are developing or integrating AI into their pre-existing businesses that are worth considering…
Exscientia plc (NASDAQ: EXAI) AI-driven drug discovery.
EXAI uses AI to design and develop drug candidates, notably creating the first AI-designed molecule to enter clinical trials. Its platform accelerates drug discovery for conditions like renal cell carcinoma and non-small cell lung cancer.
Medtronic plc (NYSE: MDT) AI in medical devices and surgical systems.
MDT integrates AI into its GI Genius endoscopy module to detect colorectal polyps in real-time and collaborates with Vizient for AI-powered surgical video analytics to improve outcomes.
Boston Scientific Corporation (NYSE: BSX) AI-driven health IT and medical education tools.
BSX invests in AI to streamline healthcare delivery, optimize clinical outcomes, and enhance patient engagement through advanced systems and medical education tools.
Becton, Dickinson and Company (NYSE: BDX): AI in medical imaging, diagnostics, and telemedicine.
BDX uses AI for health IT infrastructure automation, fraud detection, and telemedicine solutions to improve diagnostic precision and patient safety.
Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ: ISRG) AI in robotic-assisted surgery.
Known for its da Vinci surgical systems, Intuitive Surgical uses AI to analyze case data and improve surgical precision, with recent launches like an AI-powered digital tool for surgeons.
And there are many, many more.
So, if you feel you’ve missed out on AI as an investment, you’re very much mistaken. There is tremendous potential (and profits) here. Even a handful of AI-related healthcare plays could generate major returns in the next three to five years.
On that note, we have published a special investment report The AI Plays Your Broker Doesn’t Know About detailing three unique investments designed to profit from the ongoing revolution in AI. Best of all, Wall Street has little to no idea these companies even exist, let alone their potential.
We are making just 99 copies available to the general public. To pick up yours…
If you think the AI revolution is over, you should know that insiders at many AI firms have been loading up on shares… and they’re not selling, either.
At Phoenix Capital Research, one of the key metrics we track are insider purchases. Insiders might sell shares in their company for any number of reasons… but they only buy for ONE reason: they expect shares to go much higher in the coming weeks and months.
Consider Coreweave (CRVW). Director Glenn Hutchins bought ~$20 million in the company’s shares in early May. Suffice to say, he’s done quite well off this trade. And SEC filings reveal he hasn’t sold a share since.
Do you think he believes the AI revolution is over?
What about Palantir (PLTR)? Director Heather Planishek bought over $1 million worth of PLTR stock on 5/8/25. Here again, a major insider has made a bundle off a carefully timed purchase.
And then there’s RobinHood Markets (HOOD) which uses AI in its interface to help users navigate the app easily. On 6/17/25 Director Christopher Payne bought ~$2 million worth of HOOD stock. And here again, this high-level insider has made a bundle… and is keeping every share.
My point here is that corporate insiders, the people who know more about their companies’ businesses than anyone are betting big on their firms’ futures. These are just three examples of high-level insiders opening major stakes in their companies. Do you think they’d be doing this if the AI bubble was ending soon?
I don’t.
So, if you missed out on the first wave of the AI revolution (the introduction of LLMs) don’t worry, there’s still PLENTY of opportunities to leverage the impact of AI towards profitable investing.
On that note, we just published a new special investment report The AI Plays Your Broker Doesn’t Know About detailing three unique investments designed to profit from the revolution in physical AI. Best of all, Wall Street has little to no idea these companies even exist, let alone their potential.
We are making just 99 copies available to the general public. To pick up yours…
If you’ve missed out on the first phase of the AI revolution, do not despair.
Major technological changes occur in two waves:
The buildout/ adoption.
The integration/ profits.
Think back to the internet revolution. At that time, big telecom companies spent over $1 trillion building out the networks. Many investors believed that THIS was the most important phase of the revolution and piled into telecom stocks, hoping not to miss out on this exciting new technology.
Telecom stocks ended up going nowhere for years to come. The builders were in fact NOT the companies that benefited the most from the new technology.
Meanwhile, e-commerce plays like Amazon, Google and the like emerged as the true profit generators from the internet, eventually developing almost monopolistic control over their respective industries: AMZN is the largest online retailer in the world while GOOGL controls over 90% of internet searches.
Something similar is going to play out with AI, but instead of it concerning one single sector (telecom) it’s going to apply to every industry: healthcare, energy, tech, construction, housing, even mining.
So, if you feel as if you might have missed out, you are very much mistaken. There are many future market leaders that will emerge in the coming weeks and months: early adopters who integrate AI into their operations to boost profits and increase productivity.
On that note, we just published a new special investment report The AI Plays Your Broker Doesn’t Know About detailing three unique investments designed to profit from the revolution in physical AI. Best of all, Wall Street has little to no idea these companies even exist, let alone their potential.
We are making just 99 copies available to the general public. To pick up yours…
The biggest impact from AI will NOT be in tech, but in healthcare.
In tech, AI will reduce costs, increase productivity, and profits. Those are all good things, but in terms of overall impact for humanity, they simply convert to more money.
In healthcare, AI will do all of the above, while simplifying/ improving an overly convoluted system AND save lives. As we’ve previously noted, AI giants are already partnering with healthcare/ pharmaceutical companies to expedite drug development, analyzing test results, and even accurately diagnosing complicated medical conditions using both text and images.
This is going to completely revolutionize healthcare. It is quite possible that within the next decade AI will be a dominant force in this sector of the economy which accounts for nearly 20% of GDP.
And if you don’t believe me, perhaps you’ll believe the President who said the following in January:
“It’s going to create a lot of benefits medically for cancer research and other things. It’s [AI] going to have a huge positive impact (on healthcare).”
This is not the usual Trump hype. A study by Harvard and McKinsey posits that integrating AI into the healthcare system in the U.S. could save as much as $360 BILLION annually.
Adoption is happening fast, too. According to survey by the American Medical Association (AMA) some 66% of physicians had used AI in some capacity in 2024. This is up from just 38% in 2023. And some 38% of healthcare organizations are in the process of exploring AI and its uses.
Some healthcare names that are pairing with or developing AI solutions.
NovoNordisk (NVO): pairing with Nvidia (NVDA) for drug development.
Medtronic (MED): medical devices that will use AI.
Relay Therapeutics (RLAY): AI used for drug development.
The potential here is massive. And there will be a LOT of money to be made with the right investments.
So, if you missed out on the first wave of the AI revolution (the introduction of LLMs) don’t worry, there’s still PLENTY of opportunities to leverage the impact of AI towards profitable investing. This is especially true in the healthcare sector, where AI integration is only just beginning.
On that note, we just published a new special investment report The AI Plays Your Broker Doesn’t Know About detailing three unique investments designed to profit from the revolution in physical AI. Best of all, Wall Street has little to no idea these companies even exist, let alone their potential.
We are making just 99 copies available to the general public. To pick up yours…
It’s time to permanently dispel with the myth that the Fed is politically independent.
First and foremost, the Fed’s own monetary policies disprove this. As Peter St Onge, Ph.D. recently noted on X (formerly Twitter), throughout its 112-year history, Fed policy has favored Democrat Presidents. Specifically, Democrat administrations have experienced real rates of 0.7% while Republican administrations have experienced real rates of 3.1%.
There is no arguing this. For all its claims of political independence the Fed has given Democrat administrations a significantly lower cost of capital than that which it has given Republicans. Again, this is not during the last decade… it’s throughout the entirety of the Fed’s112- year history!
Secondly, Fed officials favor Democrat politicians with their own capital. As Stephen Moore notes on X, during the 2024 Presidential election cycle, 92% of political contributions made by Fed employees went to Democrats.
Not, 51%, not 75%, 92%.
Again, Fed political independence is a myth. The Fed’s own monetary policies and political contributions prove this. And it’s setting the stage for a MAJOR showdown between the Trump administration and the Fed.
It is no secret that President Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell HATE each other. And as I’ve noted previously, the Powell Fed has openly acted in a political fashion.
Some of the Powell Fed’s more egregious political acts include:
Raising rates aggressively while running large-scale Quantitative Tightening (QT) programs in 2018 while ignoring numerous signals that doing this would result in catastrophe. Later, former Vice Chair Stanley Fisher would admit in an interview that he believed the Fed did this to hurt the Trump administration’s economic agenda.
Proclaiming inflation to be “transitory” throughout 2021 until Fed Chair Powell was nominated for a second term by then-President Biden… at which point the Fed pivoted and dropped the word transitory from Fed language within a week.
Cutting rates by 0.5% within 60 days of the 2024 Presidential election… then turning around and refusing to cut rates once Donald Trump won the election, despite inflation being lower and unemployment being higher than it was at the time the Fed implemented the 0.5% rate cut.
Openly criticizing the Trump administration’s trade war/ tariff policies after refusing to criticize the Biden administration’s extreme fiscal policies which added nearly $10 trillion to the debt in four years.
Criticizing the Trump administration’s trade war/ tariff policies at a time when the stock market was collapsing and the financial system was looking for reassurance, thereby violating the Fed’s goal of maintaining financial stability.
The above items alone strongly suggest Fed Chair Powell is unfit to lead the Fed. But his decision to renovate the Fed’s DC offices to the tune of $2.3 BILLION (with a B) might have given the Trump administration “cause” to have him removed.
As Awakened Outlaw pointed out on X, for the $2.3 billion that Jerome Powell is spending renovating the Fed’s DC headquarters, you could have built THREE Dallas Cowboys stadiums.
Even by DC standards, that’s an excessive amount of waste. And it’s EXTREMELY politically tone deaf given the state of Americans’ pocketbooks courtesy of the Fed’s actions (by keeping rates high the Fed is hurting housing, as well as consumer debt).
Indeed, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told ABC news, the Fed’s renovation is “the most expensive project in D.C. history — $2.5 billion, with a $700 million cost overrun…”
The President is allowed to fire the Fed Chair if there is cause. And it is clear that political momentum is building for Powell to resign… or be fired. Indeed, some Trump administration officials like FHFA Bill Pulte are calling for Powell to be investigated. Given that the Powell Fed has already had plenty of scandals, it is unlikely Powell would wait for this to start.
The stage is set for a political showdown… and given how critical the Fed is to financial stability there is the potential for a market meltdown if this situation comes unhinged.
If you find yourself worried about another crash, or bear market hitting, we have a proprietary signal that you can use to insure you get out of the markets well before a collapse hits.
This signal has accurately predicted every major market collapse in the last 40 years. And we detail it, how it works and what it’s saying about the markets today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.
Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of what’s happening with the Fed today, we’re making just 99 copies available to the investing public.
There is ample evidence that the current Fed, led by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, is highly political, making policy decisions based on political preferences rather than economic data, or what’s best for Americans’ pocketbooks.
Case in point, the Powell Fed has happy to cut rates by 0.5% last August, within 60 days of the 2024 Presidential election at a time when the economic future was extremely uncertain depending on which candidate won the election. However, once President Trump won, the Powell Fed stopped cutting rates and has been on hold for seven months even though inflation is lower and unemployment is higher today than it was in August 2024!
Their reason for not cutting rates once President Trump won? Because the Trump administration’s trade war/ tariffs could result in economic uncertainty. And yes, Jerome Powell wants you to believe that tariffs, which most nations already have in place, create more economic uncertainty than a Presidential election with two diametrically opposed candidates and economic agendas.
This is not only insulting, but it’s going to cost the U.S. hundreds of billions of dollars. As I noted in yesterday’s article, the U.S. needs to roll over $9 trillion in debt in the next 12 months. By keeping rates at 4.5%, the Fed in ensuring that interest payments on ALL that new debt will be much higher!
How much higher?
President Trump claims it could be as much as $900 BILLION.
This alone is reason enough for Jerome Powell to resign as Fed chair. He was completely silent for four years as the Biden administration added nearly $10 trillion to the national debt. And yet, once President Trump took office, suddenly the Powell Fed is worried about the deficit as well as other fiscal issues (tariffs/ the trade war).
The U.S. is not the only one impacted by the Fed’s political rate games. Remember, every interest payment in our financial system (student loans, mortgages, auto loans, credit card payments, etc.) are based on the Fed Funds rate. By keeping rates higher, the Fed is forcing Americans to pay more on their debts.
This is the thing of which debt crises are made of. As I’ve noted previously, interest on the U.S. national debt has already exceeded $1 trillion per year. It is now the second largest government outlay behind social security. Where does it go once the U.S. is forced to roll over that $9 trillion in debt at higher interest rates? $1.5 trillion? $2 trillion? Higher?
You get the idea. The Fed is playing with matches next to a debt bomb. And the ones who will be affected by it when it goes off are the 330 million Americans’ stock portfolios.
If you find yourself worried about another crash, or bear market hitting, we have a proprietary signal that you can use to insure you get out of the markets well before a collapse hits.
This signal has accurately predicted every major market collapse in the last 40 years. And we detail it, how it works and what it’s saying about the markets today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.
Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of what’s happening with the Fed today, we’re making just 99 copies available to the investing public.
As I outlined previously, there is ample evidence that the Fed, particularly Fed Chair Jerome Powell acts in a highly political manner. This runs contrary to the Fed’s proclaimed political independence.
It’s also extremely dangerous.
The Fed is supposed to be politically independent because it is supposed to concentrate on the economy, NOT political agendas. Specifically, the Fed’s Dual Mandate is to focus on maximum employment while acting to ensure inflation doesn’t get out of control. These are objectively economic goals, and should be insulated from an administration’s political agendas, though, obviously every President is going to want to the economy grow.
Unfortunately, the Powell Fed has proven itself to be political to the point of acting AGAINST the U.S.’s economic interests. Some of the Powell Fed’s more egregious political acts include:
Raising rates aggressively while running large-scale Quantitative Tightening (QT) programs in 2018 while ignoring numerous signals that doing this would result in catastrophe. Later, former Vice Chair Stanley Fisher would admit in an interview that he believed the Fed did this to hurt the Trump administration’s economic agenda.
Proclaiming inflation to be “transitory” throughout 2021 until Fed Chair Powell was nominated for a second term by then-President Biden… at which point the Fed pivoted and dropped the word transitory from Fed language within a week.
Cutting rates by 0.5% within 60 days of the 2024 Presidential election… then turning around and refusing to cut rates once Donald Trump won the election, despite inflation being lower and unemployment being higher than it was at the time the Fed implemented the 0.5% rate cut.
Openly criticizing the Trump administration’s trade war/ tariff policies after refusing to criticize the Biden administration’s extreme fiscal policies which added nearly $10 trillion to the debt in four years.
Criticizing the Trump administration’s trade war/ tariff policies at a time when the stock market was collapsing and the financial system was looking for reassurance, thereby violating the Fed’s goal of maintaining financial stability.
These items alone are reason enough for the Fed to warrant a political investigation. However, there is another, far more dangerous aspect to what the Fed’s doing.
By refusing to cut interest rates today, despite both inflation and the labor market data matching levels at which the Fed cut rates in 2019 as well as 2024, the Fed is going to cost the U.S. hundreds of billions of dollars.
I’m not writing this for dramatic effect.
The U.S. needs to roll over $9 trillion in debt in the next 12 months. By refusing to cut rates today due to fears of potential inflation from the tariffs despite ZERO signs of inflation reappearing, the Powell Fed is ensuring that the U.S. will roll over this debt at HIGHER rates, resulting in dramatically higher interest payments.
This is setting the stage for a debt crisis. Interest payments on the national debt have already exceeding $1 trillion per year. Indeed, they are the second largest government outlay behind social security. So, the Fed is really playing with fire by refusing to cut rates.
The stage is set for a political showdown… and given how critical the Fed is to financial stability there is the potential for a market meltdown if this situation comes unhinged.
If you find yourself worried about another crash, or bear market hitting, we have a proprietary signal that you can use to insure you get out of the markets well before a collapse hits.
This signal has accurately predicted every major market collapse in the last 40 years. And we detail it, how it works and what it’s saying about the markets today in a Special Investment Report How to Predict a Crash.
Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of what’s happening with the Fed today, we’re making just 99 copies available to the investing public.
As I keep emphasizing, the labor market is cracking.
Yesterday, ADP released its employment numbers for June. And they were UGLY. According to the data, the economy LOST 33,000 jobs last month. Expectations were for 98,000 jobs to be CREATED.
This is yet another data point signaling that the labor market is MUCH weaker than the Fed has claimed. As I’ve noted previously, because the headline data is usually massaged to overestimate growth for political reasons, you have to look for less popular (and less manipulated) data points to get a clearer picture of what’s really happening in the economy.
Warning: it’s not good.
First and foremost, year-over-year change in total non-farm payrolls indicates job growth is slowing. Growth is now hovering around just 1.19%. This is hardly the stuff of a robust labor market. It’s actually the weakest number in the post-pandemic era!
Moreover, the individuals who lose their jobs are not finding new ones rapidly. Consider the below chart of the number of people unemployed for over 27 weeks. This is obviously not going in the right direction. Indeed, it’s now well above the levels in 2018 at which the Fed commenced its last easing cycle in earnest.
The same is true for job openings. Here again the data has rolled over and is trending down. I would also note that this graph is at the same levels it hit in 2019 when the Fed was cutting rates aggressively… but it’s refusing to do so now!
Finally, and most worrisome, the average weekly hours for all employees has collapsed. The only time it’s been lower in the last two decades was during the pandemic and the Great Financial Crisis!
Add it all up and job growth is slowing… the number of people out of work 27 weeks is rising… and the average hours people are working per week is dropping. These are all serious issues and as the above charts illustrate, they’ve trending down for months.
And now even the ADP number is showing NEGATIVE job growth for the month of June. But investors are buying stocks like nothing is wrong!
There is a LOT of money to be made here with the right investments. Some investments will be erupting higher in the coming months. Others will lose a tremendous amount of value.
With this in mind, investors should ride the current bull market in stocks while keeping one eye on the exits. We are urging our clients to do precisely this with a tool we’ve developed that has accurately predicted every major market collapse in the last 40 years.
We detail it, how it works and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash. Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of what’s happening with the Fed today, we’re making just 99 copies available to the investing public.
In case you missed it, an undercover journalist sat down with Aurel Hizmo a principal economist from the Federal Reserve who personally writes speeches for Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
During the course of the conversation, Hizmo commented that Jerome Powell’s legacy was that he was “somebody who held the line against Trump” that “Trump is a crazy person” and that conservatives are “dumb.”
Now obviously, these are offhand comments made by someone about Powell, not by Powell himself. But considering that this individual writes speeches for Powell you can safely assume that he spends a decent amount of time with the Fed Chair and has a decent idea of Powell’s views on things.
This video, taken along with Jerome Powell’s bizarre foray into social justice issues (climate change, reparations), as well as the Chair’s clearly political views on monetary policy (cutting rates by 0.5% before the 2024 election, but refusing to cut rates once Trump won), builds a pretty compelling case that Jerome Powell is unfit to be Fed Chair.
For those who don’t keep track of these things, below is a list of the more egregious issues that have occurred under Powell’s tenure:
The Fed claimed inflation was transitory, unleashing untold suffering on Americans, until the week that former President Biden nominated Powell for a second term… at which point Powell dropped all references to “transitory” inflation and began urging the Fed to raise rates. This suggests Powell was more concerned for his career than Americans’ financial well-being.
A massive insider trading scandal during which numerous major Fed officials were caught trading on insider information concerning Fed policy. This scandal resulted in several Fed officials resigning and massively damaged the Fed’s reputation. Powell was in charge of the Fed throughout this period.
Powell’s decision to promote climate change, reparations, and other woke political issues that are outsight the Fed’s Dual Mandate as set forth by Congress. There was no reason to do this other than personal preference which suggests Powell is more of a political activist than central banker.
Powell openly criticizing the Trump administration’s trade war/ tariffs after ignoring egregious fiscal policies the Biden administration ran for four years (adding $10 TRILLION to the debt, running emergency levels of deficit spending, relying extensively on issuing short-term debt thereby setting a debt bomb for the next administration).
Powell choosing to torch the Trump administration in a major speech at a time when the financial system was under extreme duress after stocks erased $11 trillion in wealth (remember, the Fed’s primary responsibility is to provide financial stability, NOT issue controversial statements when stocks are collapsing).
In this context, I believe there is ample evidence here that Powell is unfit to serve as Fed Chair. It is one thing for the head of a community bank to do this… it’s something else entirely for the single most powerful central banker in the world to be doing it.
If you think I’m being overly dramatic here, consider that by refusing to cut rates today, the Fed is going to cost the U.S. HUNDREDS of BILLIONS of dollars.
The U.S. needs to roll over $9 trillion in debt in the next 12 months. By refusing to cut rates, the Fed will force the U.S. to refinance this debt at a higher interest rate. This will cost the U.S. hundreds of billions of dollars in debt payments over the coming years. The Fed could literally cut rates now, give the U.S. a chance to lock in lower debt payments, and then raise rates down the road if inflation reappears (as of now, there are NO signs that this is the case, but you never know).
A crisis is coming… and the Fed is 100% responsible. The fact that stocks are oblivious to this is nothing new: stocks were ignorant of the coming crash in 1999 and 2007 too.
With this in mind, investors should ride the current bull market in stocks while keeping one eye on the exits. We are urging our clients to do precisely this with a tool we’ve developed that has accurately predicted every major market collapse in the last 40 years.
We detail it, how it works and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash. Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of what’s happening with the Fed today, we’re making just 99 copies available to the investing public.
The Big Beautiful Bill is currently in the Senate where it is being debated. If it passes there, it will go back to the House of Representatives before finally making its way to President Trump’s desk to be signed into law.
What’s in this bill?
No one knows. It’s over 1,000 pages. And I can guarantee no one voting on it has bothered to read it.
The one thing we do know about the bill, it is current form, is that it will add $3.3 trillion to the deficit and increase the debt ceiling by $5 trillion. These are NOT small numbers. The U.S. just hit $37 trillion in debt last month. And it is already running the kind of deficit usually associated with major recessions at a time when the economy is still growing!
Let’s be clear here… if the BBB passes in its current form, there is no returning from that point. The U.S. will officially have crossed the “Debt Rubicon.” No matter what the President or his cabinet claim, the U.S. CANNOT grow its way out of this mess.
Remember, there are three means of dealing with a debt issue:
Pay it off.
Default/ restructure.
Inflate it away.
If the BBB passes, then we are heading for #3: inflate it away.
This will involve the U.S. dollar losing purchasing power and inflation hedges soaring. In fact, that process has already begun. Gold recently hit new all-time highs priced against every major currency. The precious metal is now correcting after a blistering run higher. But if the BBB passes in its current form, you can expect gold to break out to new highs.
This is also why stocks continue to climb a wall of worry. Stocks are an inflation hedge… and they will rise in nominal terms as the $USD falls. In fact, you can think of what’s unfolding as the great global melt-up, fueled by money printing to deal with excessive debt (the world just cleared $300 trillion in debt outstanding last month).
There is a LOT of money to be made here with the right investments. Some investments will be erupting higher in the coming months. Others will lose a tremendous amount of value.
On that note, we recently detailed three investments that will profit beautifully from as capital flees fiat currencies for inflation hedges/ non-fiat in a Special Investment Report titled How to Profit From Inflation.
This report explains WHY the $USD is so weak, what it means for the markets, and which investments will perform best in this new environment.
We made 99 copies available to the general public. As I write this, there are only 11 left.
Posted inInflation|Comments Off on The Big Beautiful Bill Will Trigger a Tectonic Shift in the Financial System
Canada just tapped out.
Late last week, Canada announced that it would NOT cancel the proposed collection of a Digital Service Tax (DTS) on U.S. tech firms. In its simplest rendering, starting Monday (today) Canada intended to hit U.S. tech firms with a 3% levy of any revenues generated from Canadian users above $20 million. The collection would be retroactive in nature, going back to 2022.
It was a bit of a “slap in the face” to the U.S. which was currently negotiating a trade deal with Canada. In response to this, President Trump ended ALL trade negotiations with that country via a furious post on social media.
Fast forward to today, and Canada announced that it is rescinding the digital service tax. Once again, a round of the “trade war” lasted less than 72 hours and was resolved with the other country tapping out to remain in the U.S.’s good graces.
How many times are the markets going to fall for this stuff?
Let’s cut through the B.S. here. The U.S. is the largest, most dynamic economy in the world. U.S. consumers account for nearly $20 TRILLION in spending power. And the entire world wants access to these wallets/ pocketbooks.
Put another way, no country wants to engage in a prolonged trade war with the U.S. This is particularly true now that we have two months’ worth of U.S. inflation/ GDP data showing that the trade war DID NOT trigger an inflationary spike in the U.S., nor did it trigger an economic contraction. It is clear the U.S. can weather any “hiccups” trade negotiations might cause, particularly now that the Trump administration has abandoned any pretense of austerity and is running the economy hot courtesy of Biden-esque deficits.
Put simply, the trade war is a non-issue for stocks investors and has been for weeks now. This is why the stock market continues to rally despite any trade related issues popping up whether they be with China, Canada, or someone else.
Those investors who panicked and sold during the various trade related issues since the April lows have missed out on extraordinary gains. After erasing $11 trillion in wealth during the first round of the trade war, stocks have steadily climbed a “wall of worry” rallying over, 1,000 points to close at new all-time highs last week.
And while the overall markets is up quite a lot, some stocks with specific qualities have done even better, more than DOUBLING in value from the April lows.
I detail four of them in a special investment report titledTariff Proof Stocks: Four High Growth Companies Unaffected by the Trade War. Over the last month, they’re up: 22%, 32%, 40% and 100%.
To find out what they are, all you need to do is join our daily market commentary Gains Pains & Capital, and we’ll immediately send you a copy of Tariff Proof Stocksabsolutely free.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has no idea what he’s doing.
I’m not saying this for dramatic effect. Powell’s ignorance of basic macroeconomics was on stark display in his testimony before Congress earlier this week (h/t Bill King).
For months now, the Powell Fed has been warning that inflation was about to appear courtesy of the Trump administration’s tariffs/ trade war. Powell personally has commented that he firmly believes that tariffs would ignite inflation… and that it is prudent for the Fed to NOT cut rates because of this.
However, for all his concerns about inflation, the Fed Chair has just revealed he doesn’t even know the breakdown of the official inflation data. And no, I’m not exaggerating here. In one of the most shocking moments in Fed Chair history, earlier this week, Fed Chair Powell was asked by Representative Jim Hines what percentage of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is comprised of energy data.
Powell’s answer?
“I don’t know that off the top of my head.”
Here’s the transcript of the actual interaction along with a link the video on YouTube (the exchange starts at 01:22:20).
Rep Jim Hines (01:22:20): As a technical matter, we tend to refer to CPI, which is a basket of goods and we measure the price changes. Roughly speaking, what percentage of that basket is comprised of energy?
Powell: I don’t have that on the top of my head. It’s much less than it was, of course. Oil consumption is much less than it was in the ’70s as a percent of GDP, but it’s come…
Rep Hines: But energy includes natural gas and gasoline and that sort… It’s a meaningful portion of the basket?
Powell: Yes, of course, we have so much natural gas, so that’ll always be there for us.
Rep Hines: At what price point does the American household begin to feel some inflationary effects?
Powell: I don’t want to throw out a number. Frankly, it’s too early to say that something like that’s going to happen. And I know you know that, but I wouldn’t want to throw out a specific number. If prices went up materially, people would feel that…
So… the Fed Chair doesn’t know the breakdown of the official inflation measure in the U.S.: the Consumer Price Index or Cpi. Moreover, when describing the U.S.’s energy needs and inflationary impact of price increases, he says things like “we have so much natural gas”… and “If prices went up materially, people would feel that.”
This represents a SHOCKINGLY pedestrian understanding of some of the most critical items under the Fed’s purview. Jerome Powell is not some random economist working at a think tank… he’s the single most powerful central banker in the world: the individual most in control of U.S. monetary policy which shapes the trajectory of the largest, most dynamic economy in the world as well as the world’s reserve currency.
And he doesn’t even know the basic breakdown of the inflation data… the very thing he’s been so worried about for months!
This is going to end in disaster. The Fed is taking the WRONG approach with the economy: focusing excessively on a potential risk while REAL risks are appearing in the labor market.
First and foremost, year-over-year change in total non-farm payrolls indicates job growth is slowing. Growth is now hovering around just 1.19%. This is hardly the stuff of a robust labor market. It’s actually the weakest number in the post-pandemic era!
Moreover, the individuals who lose their jobs are not finding new ones rapidly. Consider the below chart of the number of people unemployed for over 27 weeks. This is obviously not going in the right direction. Indeed, it’s now well above the levels in 2018 at which the Fed commenced its last easing cycle in earnest.
The same is true for job openings. Here again the data has rolled over and is trending down. I would also note that this graph is at the same levels it hit in 2019 when the Fed was cutting rates aggressively.
Finally, and most worrisome, the average weekly hours for all employees has collapsed. The only time it’s been lower in the last two decades was during the pandemic and the Great Financial Crisis!
Add it all up and job growth is slowing… the number of people out of work 27 weeks is rising… and the average hours people are working per week is dropping. These are all serious issues and as the above charts illustrate, they’ve trending down for months.
And the Fed Chair is worried about inflation… even though he can’t even breakdown what data comprises it!
Nothing good can come from this. Indeed, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a stock market crash hit some time in the future when the economy finally rolls over, and the Fed realizes that once again, it’s WAY behind the curve on monetary policy,
With this in mind, we’re keeping a close watch on our proprietary Crash Trigger: a signal that has flashed before every major market downturn in the last 50 years.
We detail it, how it works and what it’s saying about the markets today in How to Predict a Crash. Normally we’d sell this report for $499, but in light of what’s happening today, we’re making just 99 copies available to the investing public.
Two days ago, I wrote an article titled “Are the Markets Signaling a Peace Dividend?”
Fast forward to today, and something of a cease fire is in place, though both Israel and Iran are finding it difficult to bring things to a complete halt.
As a strategist, sometimes you just get lucky with the timing of particular article. But the reason I was correct with this call was because I was able to accurately read what the markets were telling me.
Let me explain…
Ever since the strikes between Israel and Iran began in earnest on June 12th 2025, I’ve noted repeatedly that the markets were signaling that this conflict would A) not last long and B) have minimal impact on the global economy/ financial markets.
I am in no way psychic. And I certainly wasn’t making light of the situation as war is horrible. But the financial markets signaled time and again that this conflict wasn’t going to lead to World War III.
For one thing, stocks never really broke down. Sure, you can argue that “manipulation” or some other force intervened to stop stocks from collapsing, but as we learned during the Trade War in April, when sellers show up in droves, there isn’t much anyone can do (unless the Fed formally launches a major QE program).
In this context, the fact that the stock market barely dipped throughout this conflict between Iran and Israel was a strong sign that this situation was going to be resolved relatively quickly.
Indeed, looking at the price action, you can see that stocks were simply in a period of consolidation… which honestly is a perfectly normal development after a rally like the one stocks have staged since the April 9th lows.
Another “tell” concerning this conflict was the fact that oil never really exploded higher beyond the initial attack. Compare what oil did in the last two weeks (purple oval in the chart below) to what it did when Russia invaded Ukraine (blue oval in the chart below) and you’ll see what I mean. During this recent conflict between Israel and Iran, oil didn’t even clear $75 a barrel for more than a few days! Oil knew that this conflict wasn’t going to escalate into something regional or global in nature.
So again, the markets “knew” that this situation would resolve relatively quickly and that peace would prevail. The doom and gloom crowd who talked about World War III were simply not reading the markets correctly. There were numerous signs that wasn’t going to happen.
This just confirms how important it is to have someone with the right framework and understanding of the markets guiding your investments. If you’d like to receive my daily market commentary delivered to your inbox every day before the market’s open, please use the link below. I’d be delighted to help your navigate volatility and profit from the dominant trends!
We offer THREE special investment reports to all new subscribers. Feel free to pick whichever you like!
The U.S. struck Iranian nuclear facilities overnight on Sunday. As President Trump detailed in his Saturday night address, the U.S. “obliterated” three nuclear sites in a single operation.
The implications of this are vast, but the key ones are that global balance of power has now shifted.
As Bill King notes, Iran has had three primary points of leverage/ strength: its nuclear enrichment, its missile defenses, and its terrorist proxies. According to reports, Iran’s nuclear programs have been decimated. And its missile defenses and proxies have been weakened dramatically.
Iran has vowed to retaliate… but given what the U.S. just accomplished, you have to wonder how wise it would be to do so. If the U.S. can enter Iranian airspace, blow up key facilities, and then leave without being detected, it’s likely not a smart move to engage it further.
Reports are circulating that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has appointed three potential successors. And the U.S. is alleged to be discussing the reinstating of Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi once the Islamic regime falls. The writing is on the wall: regime change is very likely coming to Iran.
The markets certainly seem to be unflustered. Oil jumped initially on threats from Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, but the commodity has since rolled over and retraced most of the move. Looking at the chart you’d be hard pressed to tell ANYTHING had happened from a geopolitical perspective.
Stock futures opened up on Sunday overnight. As I write this they’re effectively flat. Again, this is telling: the markets are signaling a complete lack of concern about this situation. Of course, anything can happen in geopolitics, but right now, Monday morning, the markets are unfazed.
So where do we go from here?
The potential exists for a positive outcome here. Both Russia and China have lost their most important ally in the Middle East. This weakens them from a strategic standpoint and potentially opens the door to LESS global conflict as Russia just lost one of its biggest military/ economic supporters while China has lost one of its primary sources of oil.
Put simply, it is possible that PEACE and prosperity might come out of this ugly chapter. Of course it’s very early, and things can change at any point, but right now, the markets are discounting a positive future.
And there is a LOT of money to be made with the right investments.
One of them is the AI Revolution. Geopolitics has been grabbing the investing public’s attention for two weeks now, but the AI revolution continues. Tesla just launched its Robotaxi: a completely driverless car that can transport passengers wherever they want to go in comfort. Big Pharma is now using AI in drug development, potentially speeding up the development of life saving treatments. Heck, the State of Mississippi just announced it will be partnering with Nvidia to implement AI education to its workforce.
So while Iran has become the #1 focus for the media, investors need to shift their attention back to AI, where game-changing developments are unfolding on a near weekly basis.
On that note, we just published a new special investment report The AI Plays Your Broker Doesn’t Know About thatdetails three unique investments designed to profit from the ongoing revolution in AI. Best of all, Wall Street has little to no idea these companies even exist, let alone their potential.
We are making just 99 copies available to the general public. To pick up yours…
